Sellers ask me which check to write: take money off the price, or offer to buy down the rate. On a luxury sale those are different gifts. One changes the loan. The other rents a lower payment for a while. The figures below are dated, because a rate from last month is the wrong rate to negotiate with today.
What Did the Market Show in September and October?
AZ Big Media reported on October 21, 2026, on Phoenix REALTORS data for single-family homes. In Greater Phoenix, September closed sales were down 4.9% from a year earlier, new listings were down 3.7%, and pending sales were down 40.1%. Inventory was up 6.7%, and months of supply was 4.3 months, compared with four months a year earlier. The median sales price slipped from nearly $485,000 to $475,000, down 2.1%. Homes received 98.1% of list price, unchanged from the year before.
Those Phoenix medians are not a North Scottsdale luxury comp. The same article separates Scottsdale. It says Scottsdale new listings rose 2.8% and closed sales rose 2.2% in September 2026 compared with September 2025. Year to date, Scottsdale closed sales were up 10.6%, and the median price rose 5.5%, from $1.185 million to $1.25 million. September days on market fell from 90 to 80. Even that Scottsdale median is citywide. It is not a Grayhawk, DC Ranch, Silverleaf or Desert Mountain median. I use it so we do not price a North Scottsdale home off a $475,000 regional number.
Phoenix REALTORS board president Sammy Glassman told AZ Big Media: "Affordability today is often more about the monthly payment than the purchase price alone." He also said: "Seller concessions can be a strategic tool for both sides. Buyers may use them to buy down their rate or reduce upfront costs, while sellers can use them to help address affordability concerns and compete more effectively, especially when resale homes are being compared with new construction." That is the seller question in one paragraph. The concession is a payment tool, and the comparison he flagged is new construction.
Two Cromford Report observations belong next to that, with their limits attached. On October 22, 2026, Cromford wrote that on October 21 the Cromford Market Index for the market as a whole, all areas and dwelling types, fell to 69.9. It said the index had not been below 70 since March 12, 2009, and that any reading below 90 means the market favors buyers. That is the broad Phoenix-area index, not a North Scottsdale luxury index. On October 26, 2026, Cromford described one home that spent seven months on the market: six and a half months getting to the right price, then a buyer in about two weeks. That is their illustration of one sale. I will not turn it into a rule that every home sells in two weeks once the price moves.
Which Rate Figures Should You Use?
Use the date on the survey, and use the survey that matches the loan.
Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, as of October 29, 2026, showed the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 7.24%, down from 7.32% the previous week. The 15-year average was 6.60%, down from 6.68%. A year earlier, Freddie Mac said the 30-year average was 6.17%. Freddie Mac says this survey is an average of conventional conforming purchase applications submitted through Loan Product Advisor, and that it publishes on Thursdays. The Thursday before October 29, 2026 was October 22, 2026, which is the release date for that previous-week 7.32% average. This is not a jumbo quote, and it is not a Scottsdale quote.
For a larger loan, the closer published benchmark that week came from the Mortgage Bankers Association survey released October 21, 2026, covering the week ending October 16. MBA said the average contract rate for 30-year fixed mortgages with conforming balances of $832,750 or less was 7.41%, with points of 0.75, down from 7.50% and 0.83 points. The average for jumbo balances greater than $832,750 was 7.33%, with points of 0.60, down from 7.49% and 0.70 points. The 5/1 ARM averaged 6.46%, with points of 1.11, down from 6.54% and 1.13 points. MBA said those points include the origination fee and are for 80% loan-to-value loans. In that week, the published jumbo contract rate sat slightly below the conforming rate. That gap can move. Date it, and do not assume it next month.
MBA's Joel Kan said rates had decreased for the first time in over two months and that purchase applications were still down, 18% behind the prior year's pace. He said the ARM share held at 10.5% because ARM rates were almost a full percentage point lower than the 30-year fixed. I mention the 5/1 ARM because buyers will ask. I am not recommending one. The reset terms belong in a lender's disclosure, not in a listing blurb.
What a Price Cut Actually Does
A price cut lowers the contract price. If the buyer finances a percentage of that price, the loan gets smaller, and the principal-and-interest payment at the same note rate is lower for every month of the loan. It also changes the price buyers see in a search. I tell sellers that feedback about showings and offers is information about the price the market will engage, which is the point of Cromford's "time at the right price" example. For the rest of the pricing work, use how to set the price and how I approach a North Scottsdale luxury sale. This article stays on the choice between a cut and a concession.
What a Rate Buydown Actually Does
A seller concession is money the seller agrees to provide so the buyer can buy down the rate or reduce upfront costs. That is how Glassman described it. A 2-1 temporary buydown is a specific version: the borrower pays at a rate 2 percentage points below the note rate in year one and 1 point below it in year two. The note rate itself does not change. After the buydown period, the payment is the note-rate payment. The seller's cost, in the standard version of this math, is the gap between those payments, deposited up front.
I am not quoting an Arizona maximum for seller concessions. The sources I used for this article, Freddie Mac, the MBA survey, AZ Big Media and Cromford, do not state a statewide cap. A loan above the $832,750 conforming balance MBA cited is a jumbo loan unless a larger down payment brings the balance under that line, and jumbo programs set their own concession rules. Before you agree to a number in the contract, the buyer's lender needs to say, in writing, what that program will accept.
An Illustrative $2 Million Comparison
This table is an illustration. It is not a loan quote. Lenders and loan programs vary. Get a quote for the buyer who is actually writing.
Assumptions, all of them:
- Purchase price of $2,000,000, with a 20% down payment of $400,000, so the loan is $1,600,000.
- That loan is above the $832,750 conforming balance in the MBA survey, so the illustration uses the MBA jumbo contract rate of 7.33% for the week ending October 16, 2026, published October 21, 2026. It does not use Freddie Mac's 7.24% conforming average from October 29.
- MBA reported 0.60 points with that jumbo rate, including the origination fee, for 80% loan-to-value loans. On a $1,600,000 loan, 0.60 points equals $9,600. The payments below do not add those points, and they do not include taxes, insurance, HOA dues or mortgage insurance.
- The loan is a 30-year fixed, fully amortizing, with monthly principal and interest. The payment formula is the standard one: monthly rate times the loan, divided by one minus (1 plus the monthly rate) to the minus 360th power.
- A 2-1 buydown here means year one is calculated at 5.33% and year two at 6.33%, each as if that rate amortized the full $1,600,000 over 30 years. The seller's cost is the undiscounted sum of the monthly gaps for 24 months. A lender may calculate a buydown differently and may charge fees on top.
- The price-cut column reduces the price by that same buydown cost. The buyer still puts 20% down, so the loan is 80% of the new price, still at 7.33%.
- Payments in the table are rounded to the nearest dollar. The buydown cost uses those rounded payments so the arithmetic on the page adds up. Before rounding, the note-rate payment is $11,001.77, the year-one payment is $8,914.71, and the year-two payment is $9,934.87.
| Item | Note rate | 2-1 buydown, year 1 | 2-1 buydown, year 2 | Price cut of $37,848 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $2,000,000 | $2,000,000 | $2,000,000 | $1,962,152 |
| Down payment at 20% | $400,000 | $400,000 | $400,000 | $392,430.40 |
| Loan amount | $1,600,000 | $1,600,000 | $1,600,000 | $1,569,721.60 |
| Rate used for the payment | 7.33% | 5.33% | 6.33% | 7.33% |
| Monthly principal and interest | $11,002 | $8,915 | $9,935 | $10,794 |
The rounded gaps are $2,087 a month in year one and $1,067 a month in year two. Twelve months of each is $25,044 plus $12,804, which is $37,848. That is the illustrated seller cost of the 2-1 buydown at the 7.33% jumbo contract rate MBA published for the week ending October 16, 2026. From month 25 on, the payment in the buydown column goes back to the note-rate payment of about $11,002. The note rate never changed, and the loan amount never changed. The seller prepaid part of the buyer's first two years of payment.
The price cut of $37,848, with 20% down, reduces the loan by $30,278.40, from $1,600,000 to $1,569,721.60. The buyer also brings $7,569.60 less cash to the down payment, $392,430.40 instead of $400,000. The new principal-and-interest payment at that same 7.33% rate is about $10,794, roughly $208 a month below the rounded note-rate payment, and that lower payment lasts for the term of this loan. The exact figure before rounding the payment is $10,793.58.
Same seller dollars, different job. The buydown buys a much larger payment drop for 24 months, and then the payment steps back up. The price cut buys a smaller payment drop that stays. I tell sellers to run this again with the buyer's actual rate, points and down payment before choosing. If the home is sitting because the list price is ahead of the buyer pool, a buydown does not fix the search price. If the price is already where qualified buyers stop and look, Glassman's point applies: a concession can speak to the monthly payment, including when the other option the buyer is holding is a new-construction incentive.
What I Tell Luxury Sellers
This is how I walk a Silverleaf, DC Ranch, Grayhawk or Desert Mountain seller through the choice. It is a sequence, not a slogan.
- Price the home first. A concession on top of a price buyers are scrolling past spends the money twice. Start with a valuation grounded in the homes buyers can actually choose among.
- Identify the loan before you counter. Ask whether the buyer's loan is over the $832,750 conforming balance from that MBA week. A $2 million purchase with 20% down is. A larger down payment can pull the same house back under that line, and then the relevant published average is the conforming rate, not the jumbo rate.
- Get the concession limit from that lender. I am not going to invent a percentage. The written answer from the lender is the number that can go in the contract.
- Compare equal dollars. Put the buydown cost next to a price cut of the same amount, using the buyer's rate. The table above is the shape of that conversation. It is not the answer for a different price, rate or down payment.
- Keep the ARM conversation with the lender. A 6.46% 5/1 ARM in the MBA week ending October 16, 2026, is a different product. The payment advantage and the later reset are the lender's job to explain to that buyer.
FAQ: Price Cut or Buydown
Is a rate buydown better than a price cut on a $1 million-plus home? Neither one wins every time. A price cut reduces the loan, so the principal-and-interest payment is lower for the whole term. A 2-1 buydown lowers the payment for two years and then the payment returns to the note rate. I tell sellers to fix the list price first, then use a concession when a real buyer's payment is the remaining gap and the lender will allow it.
What mortgage rates were published in late October 2026? As of October 29, 2026, Freddie Mac's average 30-year fixed rate was 7.24%, down from 7.32% the previous week, which corresponds to the October 22, 2026 Thursday release. For the week ending October 16, 2026, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported a conforming 30-year contract rate of 7.41% and a jumbo rate of 7.33%, with a 5/1 ARM at 6.46%. Those are national survey averages, not a quote for a Scottsdale buyer.
What did Phoenix REALTORS report for September 2026? AZ Big Media, citing Phoenix REALTORS, said Greater Phoenix single-family inventory was up 6.7% and months of supply was 4.3 months, compared with four months a year earlier. The regional median was $475,000. Scottsdale's year-to-date median in that same report was $1.25 million, up from $1.185 million. Board president Sammy Glassman called seller concessions a strategic tool for buydowns and upfront costs, especially against new construction.
Does a Cromford index below 70 mean every North Scottsdale home is in a buyer's market? Cromford wrote that on October 21, 2026, its index for the market as a whole, all areas and dwelling types, was 69.9, and that any reading below 90 favors buyers. That is the broad index. It is not a separate reading for North Scottsdale luxury golf communities. Price the house in front of you against its own competition.
Is there a single Arizona cap on seller concessions? I am not quoting one. Freddie Mac, the MBA weekly survey, AZ Big Media and the Cromford observations used here do not state a statewide seller-concession maximum. Jumbo and conforming programs set their own limits. Get the buyer's lender to confirm the cap for that loan before you agree to a credit.
Where should a North Scottsdale seller start? Start with the price, then decide whether a concession helps a specific buyer. I can build that side by side from a current valuation. Call (602) 622-1226 or use the contact page, and read the pricing guide linked above before you pick a number in the counter.
Author Bio
Darren Tackett is the founder of The Tackett Team at eXp Realty, at 20551 N. Pima Road, Suite 185, Scottsdale, AZ 85255. On a luxury listing I want the price right before we spend concession dollars to disguise it.