Key takeaways
- The index compares supply and demand, and 100 is balanced. Watch its direction over four to six weeks, not a single week's reading.
- Break it apart. An index falling because supply is rising means more choice for buyers. One falling because demand is slipping means fewer buyers. They call for different seller responses.
- The contract ratio often turns before the headline index, so it is the earliest warning I track.
- Closed sales lag the market by roughly 30 to 60 days, so today's comps describe late summer and early fall.
- This post is about reading the signal. For pricing tactics, use the pricing guides linked below.
What is the Cromford® Market Index, and why does it matter for a luxury seller?
The Cromford® Market Index (CMI) compares supply and demand. A reading of 100 is balanced. Above 100 favors sellers, and below 100 favors buyers. I watch it every Thursday because it moves before list prices do. Sellers tend to anchor on the last great sale on their street, but the index shows the conditions the next buyer is actually shopping in.
As of the latest readings I'm using for this article, Scottsdale was at 133.6 on Oct 29, 2026, and the Valley was at 66.7 on Oct 31, 2026. Scottsdale is still clearly on the seller's side of balanced. The Valley as a whole is on the buyer's side. That gap is the story of this winter.
Is Scottsdale still a seller's market if the index is cooling?
Yes, for now, but a cooling seller's market behaves differently from a hot one. In a hot market, an optimistic price gets rescued by competition. In a cooling one, it gets compared. Buyers flying in for a week in December will often tour six or eight homes across Silverleaf, DC Ranch, Troon and Paradise Valley. They will notice right away if one home is priced as if it were still spring.
Scottsdale's index has eased from its mid-October readings, and I treat that direction as the signal. It doesn't mean values are falling across the board. It means buyers have more choice and more time, and they use both.
How do the supply and demand readings change the story?
Cromford publishes supply and demand readings alongside the headline index, and I read them in this order:
- Supply. Is the count of active listings rising faster than is normal for the season? Rising supply with steady demand means more competition, not fewer buyers.
- Demand. Are new contracts and showing activity holding up? Stable demand with rising supply is a slower market, not a collapsing one.
- The headline index. Only after the two components do I look at the number itself and its four-to-six-week direction.
The reason to split them is that each calls for a different response. When supply is the driver, the job is to stand out from a larger set of choices through condition, presentation and a defensible number. When demand is the driver, the pool of buyers is shrinking, and waiting tends to cost more.
If you want the pricing framework itself, my guide to setting the right price in today's market covers it. This post stays with the signals.
Does the Valley's buyer's market affect Scottsdale luxury buyers?
More than most sellers expect. Many Scottsdale luxury buyers are relocating from elsewhere in the Valley or own a second property here. They have watched homes sit in other parts of the metro, seen price reductions and heard about seller concessions. They walk into a Scottsdale showing expecting room to negotiate, even when Scottsdale's own index says otherwise.
That doesn't mean you should give the house away. It means you should be ready to defend your price with specifics, like recent comps, the cost to replicate your upgrades, and the inventory a buyer would actually have to choose from instead.
What is the contract ratio, and what does a turn look like?
The contract ratio compares listings under contract with listings still active. It tends to move before the headline index, because it reacts to this week's contracts rather than a blend of conditions. The turns I watch for are:
- A ratio that has fallen for several weeks and then flattens. That is often the first sign a slowdown is stabilizing.
- A ratio that keeps falling while new listings accelerate. That points to a supply wave and more competition ahead.
- A split between price bands, where contracts hold below one price point and thin out above it.
None of these is a forecast on its own. Together, they tell me whether next month is likely to look like last month, and that changes how I advise a seller on launch timing and how fast to respond to early feedback.
For the tactics that follow from the signal, such as a price adjustment versus a seller-paid rate buydown, see price cut or rate buydown.
Why do closed comps lag the index by 30 to 60 days?
A closed sale reflects a contract that was usually written 30 to 60 days earlier, followed by an escrow for inspections, appraisal and financing. So the comps an appraiser uses in December mostly describe October and November. When the index has been cooling, that lag means today's comps can overstate what a new contract will bring. When it turns up, comps can understate it. I account for the lag directly instead of assuming last quarter's sales are this quarter's market. For the timing question itself, see should you sell over the holidays or wait.
What should sellers in Silverleaf, DC Ranch or Paradise Valley watch specifically?
At the top of the market, the sample size is small. A single closed sale can move the "average" in a community like Silverleaf a great deal. I look at each comp individually rather than leaning on an average price per square foot. In 2022 I represented the seller of Altitude at 21264 N 113th Place in Silverleaf, which closed at roughly $28.1 million, still the highest closed sale in Scottsdale. That kind of sale isn't a comp for most homes, and I'd never use it as one. What it taught me is that buyers at the top pay for what they can't replicate, like the site, the views and the architecture. They are much less forgiving about what they can.
FAQ
What does a Cromford® Market Index of 133.6 mean for Scottsdale?
It means demand is still running ahead of supply, so the market favors sellers. A reading of 100 is balanced. Scottsdale read 133.6 on Oct 29, 2026, which is still seller-leaning, but the trend has been cooling.
Why is the Valley index so much lower than Scottsdale's?
The Valley reading (66.7 on Oct 31, 2026) covers the whole metro, where supply has built up faster than demand. Scottsdale's luxury segment has held up better, but many buyers bring the Valley's buyer's-market mindset with them.
What is the contract ratio in the Cromford® report?
It compares listings under contract with active listings. It often turns before the headline index, so I use it as an early warning. Confirm the current definition in the Cromford® Report.
How long do closed sales lag the market index?
Roughly 30 to 60 days in a typical escrow, because a closing reflects a contract written weeks earlier. Check current escrow times before relying on that range.
Can you give me a pricing opinion for my home?
Yes. I'm happy to put together a comp-based pricing review. You can call (602) 622-1226 or start with the home valuation page.
If you'd like to see how these signals look for your community, I'm glad to walk through the supply, demand and contract-ratio trends with you. There's no pressure and no obligation. Call me at (602) 622-1226 (answered 24/7), or start with a home valuation.
Author Bio
About Darren Tackett — Darren Tackett, REALTOR®, leads The Tackett Team, powered by eXp Realty, the #1 Mega Team in Arizona (RealTrends 2025), and #75 Mega Team nationally by volume. For more than 30 years he has focused on luxury homes, golf communities and land across Scottsdale, Paradise Valley and the Northeast Valley, including the roughly $28.1 million Altitude sale at Silverleaf in 2022 — the Scottsdale record and the highest closed sale in Scottsdale. The Tackett Team | eXp Realty, 20551 N. Pima Road, Suite 185, Scottsdale, AZ 85255. (602) 622-1226 (answered 24/7). darren@tackettteam.com.